19th Round - Connor Seabold - RHP (Newport Harbor HS, CA)

Though I would say "wins" shouldn't count much - but actual ERA should be huge. 

I agree with this. The actual outcomes are what should matter most for these season-long awards - but I think the difference even in that setting between Gil being higher WAR and cowser being higher WAR is this defensive metric. 

Now I'm even more confident that the dWAR is wrong and fWAR is much better here

Probably 2010 when Derek Jeter won the last of his many undeserved Gold Gloves.  I agree that media bias isn’t a big factor in the awards.  

Exactly what does “getting hot” mean? It means that everyone, at the same time, is playing to their best qualities and avoiding bonehead mistakes. the last week we saw that, and the Os had their best week in a while. So maybe the Os are getting hot.

Other than having to get through the WC round, I think this roster is situated equally or better than last year's to make a run. Yes they won 10 fewer games but when you look at talent going into October, this year's team is just as capable.  Reflecting on this season, I think the two greatest differences from last year are 1) the in-season injuries, 2) not having Bautista. With many of our injured guys back, Eflin filling in for one of the injured SP spots, and Bautista missing last year's postseason anyways, those two things aren't differences in October.  So, I think the "maybe we can go on a run like Texas" emphasis comes from watching the team struggle for two months. Not because they are only good enough if they get get hot. I think on top to bottom talent it is still them and the Yankees as the two best teams in the AL. NYY, Cleveland, and Houston will not be happy if Baltimore shows up on their schedule and will be relieved if KC gets through. 

DRS is part of dWAR, the part that’s unadjusted for difficulty of position, and expressed in runs, not wins.   If I wanted to know how good Cowser was as a LF, I’d never look at dWAR, I’d look at his DRS as a LF (he also played CF).   Honestly, I kind of wish BB-ref wouldn’t even publish dWAR, since it’s misinterpreted so often.  You could calculate the Fsbgraphs equivalent of dWAR, but they don’t publish it, so nobody ever mentions it.   But anyway, I agree that the best approach is to look at all the metrics and not adhere slavishly to any one of them.  And, I agree completely with your sssessment of Cowser.  I love his range, and he gets excellent jumps, but I hope he spends a lot of time this winter working on the accuracy of his throws, which is quite subpar.